Risk analysis and slope stability

Research scope

The possibility to model fracture networks logically led to expressions of slope stability in the form of reliability models, which quantify the probability of mechanical failure in fractured rocks. In such models, hazard and risk are related to the uncertainty in the natural characteristics of rocks. Extensive research has been done with two major objectives: (1) systematic characterization of natural hazards and (2) development of risk assessment and risk management procedures based on that characterization; both require decision making under uncertainty. Originally conducted primarily in relation to landslides, the studies have been extended to other natural hazards.

Related publications

Costa, A.L., da Conceição Cunha, M., Coelho, P.A.L.F., and Einstein, H.H. (2016). Decision support systems for real-world high-speed rail planning. Transportation Engineering, 142 (5). doi:10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000837

Costa, A.L., Cunha, M.C., Coelho, P.A.L.F., and Einstein, H.H. (2015). Application of the Simulated Annealing Algorithm for Transport Infrastructure Planning. In X.S. Yang, G. Bekdaş, and S.M. Nigdeli (eds.): Metaheuristics and Optimization in Civil Engineering, 235–253. Springer International Publishing, 2015. ISBN: 978-3319262437 (Print) 978-3319262451 (Online) doi:10.1007/978-3-319-26245-1_11

Sousa, R.L., Karam, K., and Einstein, H.H. (2014). Exploration analysis for landslide risk management. Georisk, 8 (3), 155-170. doi:10.1080/17499518.2014.958174

Fan, L., Powrie, W., Smethurst, J., Peter M. Atkinson, P.M., and Einstein, H.H. (2014). The effect of short ground vegetation on terrestrial laser scans at a local scale. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 95 (23-24), 42-52. doi:10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2014.06.003

Einstein, H.H., and Sousa, R.L. (2012). Risk in Slopes. In L. Ribeiro e Sousa, E. Vargas Jr., M.M. Fernandes, R. Azevedo (eds.): Innovative Numerical Methods in Geomechanics, Chapter 11, 201-210. CRC Press, 2012. doi:10.1201/b12130-12

Einstein, H.H., and Sousa, R.L. (2007). Warning systems for natural threats. Georisk, 1 (1), 3-20. doi:10.1080/17499510601127087

Saldivar-Sali, A., and Einstein, H.H. (2007). A landslide risk rating system for Baguio, Philippines. Engineering Geology, 91 (2-4), 85-99. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.11.006

Einstein, H.H., and Sousa, R. (2006). Warning system for natural threats. In: Proceedings of Geohazards 2006 (F. Nadim, H.H. Einstein, R. Pottler, H. Klapperich, S. Kramer, eds.), 18-21 June 2006, Lillehammer, Norway, pp. 1-38. New York, NY: Engineering Conferences International. Retrieved from http://dc.engconfintl.org/geohazards/1/

Einstein, H.H. (2005). A systematic approach to natural threats. Keynote lecture. In: Proceedings of the 10th National Convention on Civil Engineering, Engineering Institute of Thailand, 2-4 May 2005, Pattaya, Thailand.

Einstein, H.H. (2003). Uncertainty in rock mechanics and rock engineering – then and now. In: Proceedings of 10th ISRM Congress, 8-12 September, Sandton, South Africa. ISRM-10CONGRESS-2003-048

Einstein, H.H. (2002). Risk assessment and management in geotechnical engineering. Keynote lecture. In: Proceedings of the 8th Portuguese Geotechnical Congress, Lisbon, Portugal, pp. 2237–2262.

Einstein, H.H., and Karam, K. (2001). Risk assessment and uncertainties. Keynote lecture. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Landslides: Causes, Impacts, and Countermeasures (M. Kühne, ed.), 17-21 June 2001, Davos, Switzerland, pp. 457-488 . Balkema, Rotterdam. ISBN 978-3773959690

Einstein (2001). Quantifying uncertain engineering geology information. Invited lecture. In: Proceedings of the 50th Geomechanics Colloquium, October 2001, Zalzburg, Austria. Also in: Felsbau, 19 (5), 72-84. Austrian Society for Geomechanics.

Einstein, H.H. (1997). Landslide risk – Systematic approaches to assessment and management. In: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Landslide Risk Assessment (D.M. Cruden and R. Fell, eds.), 19-21 February 1997, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, pp. 25-50. CRC Press. ISBN 978-9054109143

Wu, T.H., Tang, W.H., and Einstein, H.H. (1996). Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment. In A.K. Turner & R.L. Schuster (eds.): Landslides: Investigation and Mitigation, Chapter 6, 106-118. Special Report 247, June 1996, 673 pages, Transportation Research Board. ISBN 978-0309062084 TRB database: SR247S

Kinnicutt, P.G., and Einstein, H.H. (1996). Incorporating uncertainty, objective, and subjective data in geologic site characterization. In: Uncertainty in the Geologic Environment: from Theory to Practice, proceedings of Uncertainty ’96, a specialty conference of the ASCE Geotechnical Engineering Division, July 31-August 3, Madison, Wisconsin, USA. Geotechnical Special Publication 58 (C.D. Shackelford et al., eds.), pp. 104-118. Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers, 1996. ISBN 978-0784401880

Einstein, H.H. (1995). Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering. Keynote lecture. In: Proceedings of the Swedish Rock Mechanics Day, Stockholm, Sweden, 1995. Also in: Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, 11 (2), 141-155. doi:10.1016/0886-7798(96)00014-4

Einstein, H.H. (1994). Application of Probabilistic Approaches In Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology. In D. Breysse (ed.): Probabilities and Materials: Tests, Models and Applications, NATO ASI Series, Volume 269, 51-68. Springer Netherlands, 1994. ISBN 978-9401045001 (Print) 978-9401111423 (Online) doi:10.1007/978-94-011-1142-3_8

Einstein, H.H. (1993). What can we do – what can we not do in uncertainty, reliability and risk applied to rock engineering. In: Proceedings of the ISRM International Symposium – EUROCK 93, 21-24 June, Lisboa, Portugal. ISRM-EUROCK-1993-138

Low, B.K., and Einstein, H.H. (1992). Simplified reliability analysis for wedge mechanisms in rock slopes. In: Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Landslides (D. Bell, ed.), 10-14 February 1992, Christchurch, New Zealand, vol. 1, pp. 499-507. Balkema, Rotterdam, 1992. ISBN 9789054100324

Lee, J.-S., and Einstein, H.H. (1992). Topological slope stability analysis using stochastic fracture geometry model. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Fractured and Jointed Rock Masses (N.G.W. Cook, et al., eds.), 3-5 June 1992, Lake Tahoe, California. Balkema, Rotterdam. ISBN 978-9054105916

Einstein, H.H. (1991). Risk in rock engineering. In: Proceedings of the Geotechnical Engineering Congress, 10-12 June 1991, Boulder, Colorado, vol. 1, pp. 608-634. Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers (G. McLean, D.A. Campbell, D.W. Harris, eds.) ISBN 978-0872628069

Einstein, H.H., Whittle, A.J., Jeng, F.S., and Legaspi, Jr., D.E. (1990). Experimental and Analytical Modelling for Propellant-Embedded Anchors. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering. MIT Sea Grant College Program report (MITSG 90-22), Grant No. NA86AA-D-SG089, 1990. MIT Libraries: 000474566

Einstein, H.H. (1988). Landslide risk assessment procedure. Keynote lecture. In: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Landslides (C. Bonnard, ed.), 10-15 July 1988, Lausanne, Switzerland, vol. 2, 1075-1090. Balkema, Rotterdam. ISBN 9061918391 (v. 2)

Einstein, H.H. (1985). Unsicherheit in der Geotechnik. (Uncertainty in geotechnical engineering.) Schweizer Ingenieur und Architekt, 103, 398-404. Retrieved from http://www.e-periodica.ch/digbib/view?pid=sbz-003:1985:103::301#2150

Einstein, H.H., Baecher, G.B., and Veneziano, D. (1982). Risk analysis for rock slopes in open pit mines (in 8 parts): Einstein, H H; Baecher, G B; Veneziano, D. US Bureau of Mines reports OFR 46(1-8)-81, Nov 1979, 1954P. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts, 19 (3), 67. doi:10.1016/0148-9062(82)91320-1

Einstein, H.H., and Baecher, G.B. (1983). Probabilistic and statistical methods in engineering geology. Specific methods and examples part I: Exploration. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 16 (1), 39-72. doi:10.1007/BF01030217

Einstein, H.H., and Baecher, G.B. (1982). Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Engineering Geology I. Problem Statement and Introduction to Solution. In L. Müller (ed.): Engineering Geology and Geomechanics as Fundamentals of Rock Engineering, Chapter 4, 47-61. Suppl. volume 12 of the series Rock Mechanics. Springer Vienna, 1982. ISBN 978-3211816974 (Print) 978-3709186657 (Online) doi:10.1007/978-3-7091-8665-7_4

Einstein, H.H., and Baecher, G.B. (1982). Tunneling and Mining Engineering. In R.L. Hunter, C.J. Mann (eds.): Techniques for Determining Probabilities of Geologic Events and Processes, Chapter 3, International Association for Mathematical Geology Studies in Mathematical Geology, No. 4. Oxford University Press, 1982. ISBN: 978-0195074987

Einstein, H.H., Baecher, G.B., Veneziano, D., et al. (1980). Risk Analysis for Rock Slopes in Open Pit Mines. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering. MIT reports prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Mines. Six volumes, MIT series R80-18-R80-23. Executive summary. Part 1 – Distributions of rock mass properties. Part 2 – Limit equilibrium analysis for rock wedge stability. Part 3 – Reliability analysis of rock slope stability. Part 4 – Field exploration to determine rock mass properties. Part 5 – Probabilistic models of jointed rock mass deformation and their implications. Appendices A through M – Detailed geologic data underlying developments. MIT Libraries: 000660195

Glynn, E.F., and Einstein, H.H. (1979). Probability of kinematic instability in rock slopes – a numerical approach. In: Proceedings of the 20th U.S. Symposium on Rock Mechanics (USRMS), 4-6 June, Austin, Texas. ARMA-79-0317

Baecher, G.B., and Einstein, H. H. (1979). Slope Reliability Models in Pit Optimization. In: Proceedings of the 16th International Symposium on Application of Computers and Operations Research in the Mineral Industry, American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineers, New York, NY, pp.501-512.

Einstein, H.H., Baecher, G.B., Glynn, E., Dershowitz, W.S., Lanney, N., and Maloney, G. (1978). Risk Analysis for Rock Slopes in Open Pit Mines: Annual Technical Report. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering. MIT report no. R78-7, Volumes I and II, 1978. Prepared for the U.S. Bureau of Mines under Contract no. J0275015. MIT Libraries: 000369020